Unlocking Morocco’s Gas Potential: Infrastructure, Strategy, and Investment Outlook

Morocco is entering a decisive phase in shaping its natural gas future. With rising industrial and power generation needs, limited domestic production, and strategic location near major gas flows, the country has the potential to become a regional hub. This article examines Morocco’s natural gas potential, major infrastructure plans, its role within the broader energy mix, and the strategic reforms needed to fully leverage gas for sustainable development.

Introduction

As Morocco accelerates its energy transition and industrial modernization, natural gas emerges as a vital bridge between today’s needs and tomorrow’s ambitions. With a growing focus on energy security, competitive manufacturing, and renewable integration, the country is rethinking its gas strategy—not only as a substitute for coal and oil, but as a vector for regional cooperation and infrastructure development. This article explores the current potential, infrastructure roadmap, and strategic opportunities that position Morocco to become a key gas and energy hub in North and West Africa.

1. Natural Gas in Morocco: Untapped Strategic Potential

Morocco’s natural gas sector presents a long-term opportunity to reduce import dependency and anchor a cleaner, flexible energy transition. While the offshore Anchois field, previously considered the country’s most promising undeveloped asset with estimated contingent resources of ~18 bcm, recently faced a setback—drilling results in 2024 fell short of expectations, and the project was suspended due to economic viability concerns. This outcome highlights the inherent risks of frontier offshore exploration but does not negate the broader potential of Morocco’s gas basins.

Realistic short- to medium-term opportunities lie primarily onshore, including the Tendrara field, which holds ~10.7 bcm of reserves and is advancing toward near-term production with active investment from Managem group. In addition, Morocco has technically recoverable shale gas resources—notably in the Tadla Basin—estimated at 3 Tcf, although these require further appraisal and regulatory clarity for development.

Another underexplored opportunity lies in areas under Moroccan sovereignty in the southern provinces, which share geological features with proven Mauritanian and Senegalese offshore gas systems. These zones, notably the Aaiun-Tarfaya and Dakhla basins, could attract future investment as regulatory and diplomatic frameworks mature.

Further potential exists in the eastern extension of the Algerian basin, known for its prolific productivity, and in offshore margins geologically analogous to Nova Scotia, which may offer deeper basin gas plays. However, unlocking these resources will require significant and sustained investment in exploration, with discovery costs in similar high-risk regions ranging from $0.50 to $1.00 per m³. Strategic support, public-private partnerships, and improved geological data access will be essential to de-risk these opportunities and build a viable upstream gas portfolio for Morocco.

2. Infrastructure Projects and Potential Partnerships

Morocco is implementing a multi-layered natural gas infrastructure strategy that balances immediate import needs with the long-term vision of becoming a critical transit and transformation hub between Africa and Europe. This ambition is being pursued through projects such as LNG terminals, regasification units, reverse-flow interconnections with Spain, and large-scale continental pipeline initiatives. Crucially, these projects are not isolated national efforts—they are designed within a framework of regional cooperation, where win-win partnerships with West African and European stakeholders can help accelerate infrastructure delivery, share investment risks, and optimize geopolitical value chains.

Key initiatives include the Jorf Lasfar LNG terminal, which would serve both Moroccan industrial clusters and potential re-exports, and the reversal of the Maghreb-Europe pipeline (MEG) to enable flows from Spain. Most strategically, the Nigeria–Morocco Gas Pipeline (NMGP)—a 5,600 km project crossing 13 countries—is advancing with the support of ECOWAS, the Islamic Development Bank, and the OPEC Fund. It holds the promise of transforming regional supply security while fostering integration and monetization of West African gas reserves.

Using realistic assumptions, we can outline three scenarios for gas integration and flows through Morocco by 2035:

In the best-case scenario, up to 25 bcm/year could transit from West Africa to Europe through Morocco—representing a significant diversification route compared to current heavy dependence on Russian and North Sea gas. Even the base-case scenario would position Morocco as a meaningful contributor to EU energy diversification while meeting its own growing industrial needs.

To realize these benefits, regional alignment is essential. Investment in shared infrastructure must be accompanied by transparent regulatory frameworks, cross-border tariff harmonization, and long-term offtake agreements involving African and European public and private stakeholders. Morocco’s geographical position, political stability, and diplomacy make it uniquely placed to serve as a convergence point between African supply and European demand—turning gas transit into a catalyst for broader regional integration.

3. Natural Gas vs. Other Energy Options: A Cost Comparison

The global energy landscape is evolving rapidly, driven by technological breakthroughs, falling renewable energy costs, and growing pressure to decarbonize. According to recent IEA and IRENA outlooks, the cost of solar PV and onshore wind has continued to decline, now often undercutting fossil fuels in unsubsidized markets. Meanwhile, battery storage, green hydrogen, and small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) are attracting growing interest and investment, though they remain at varying levels of maturity and affordability.

Despite this innovation wave, natural gas remains a critical transition fuel—especially in emerging economies where grid stability, industrial demand, and power intermittency management require flexible and dispatchable energy. Gas infrastructure can also serve dual-use applications by integrating hydrogen in the future, improving long-term value and resilience.

In Morocco’s context, natural gas is uniquely positioned to complement low-cost renewables by providing flexible baseload and peak power, especially as hydropower loses reliability due to recurring droughts. Wind and solar now account for over 35% of installed capacity, but cannot stabilize the grid alone. According to simulation models from international experience (e.g., South Africa, Chile), maintaining 15–25% of flexible gas capacity in the energy mix is ideal to enable 70–80% renewable integration without compromising system reliability or curtailment losses.

For Morocco, achieving this balance would mean ensuring 4–6 GW of gas-based flexible generation over the next decade, either through combined-cycle plants, hybrid gas-renewable hubs, or reserve peaking units. Natural gas, when strategically deployed, becomes not just a transitional fuel—but an enabler of large-scale renewable deployment and long-term energy security.

4. Strategic Framework for Sector Development

To fully unlock Morocco’s natural gas potential—both as a domestic resource and a regional transit corridor—a coherent, modern, and integrated development framework is essential. Recent developments, such as the designation of ANRE (Autorité Nationale de Régulation de l’Energie) as the regulatory body for gas market oversight, represent an important milestone in strengthening institutional capacity. This regulatory evolution lays the groundwork for liberalizing the gas market, ensuring third-party access to infrastructure, and defining competitive pricing mechanisms in alignment with investor expectations and regional best practices.

However, deeper structural reforms are needed to support sustainable and inclusive gas sector growth. Based on the current state of resources and infrastructure readiness, the following pillars should guide Morocco’s natural gas development model:

✅ Regulatory Modernization

• Empower ANRE with clear mandates over gas pricing, infrastructure access, and dispute resolution.
• Establish a dedicated gas code or integrate gas-specific provisions into energy law updates to clarify market structure, tariffs, and licensing.
• Promote transparency and competition in midstream and downstream operations, including regasification, transport, and distribution.

✅ Strategic Planning and Integration

• Update the national gas master plan to reflect new realities: evolving demand, climate targets, LNG integration, and pipeline diplomacy.
• Define realistic timelines and load projections for gas-to-power capacity, industrial usage, and storage facilities.
• Ensure alignment with the National Hydrogen Roadmap and Morocco’s 2050 decarbonization strategy, enabling long-term fuel switching.

✅ Data-Driven Governance and Digitalization

• Create a national digital platform for geological data, gas reserves, infrastructure, and licensing—modeled after leading mining and energy cadastres.
• Facilitate investor access to data on basins, blocks, and ongoing developments through ONHYM and the new regulator.

✅ Exploration and Upstream Promotion

• Expand ONHYM’s public-private partnership model to include new fiscal incentives, fast-track permitting, and seismic data sharing.
• Prioritize frontier zones with geological analogues (e.g., Nova Scotia margin, Algerian basin extension, Dakhla offshore) and strengthen R&D on shale gas viability.
• Provide tax relief or co-financing schemes to reduce the $0.50–$1.00/m³ discovery cost burden in frontier settings.

✅ Infrastructure and Regional Diplomacy

• Advance NMGP (Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline) negotiations with ECOWAS, Nigeria, and international funders (AfDB, IsDB, EU).
• Finalize the reversal of the Maghreb-Europe Pipeline (MEG) and interconnection protocols with Spain and Enagás.
• Design national infrastructure (e.g., Jorf Lasfar LNG terminal) with regional integration and future hydrogen compatibility in mind.

By focusing on these five pillars—regulatory clarity, strategic planning, digital transparency, exploration incentives, and pipeline diplomacy—Morocco can transform its gas sector from an underutilized segment into a strategic lever for industrial development, energy security, and regional cooperation. The convergence of recent discoveries, infrastructure initiatives, and institutional reforms provides a unique opportunity to build a modern, flexible, and green-compatible gas ecosystem.

Conclusion

Natural gas can serve as a strategic enabler of Morocco’s energy transition, industrial competitiveness, and regional leadership—provided it is developed through a coherent and forward-looking framework. While offshore discoveries like Anchois have faced challenges, the country’s onshore potential, proximity to West African gas flows, and access to European markets via pipeline and LNG terminals present a compelling opportunity.

The recent entry of Managem Group into gas production marks a turning point, signaling increased private sector engagement and the potential to catalyze new partnerships across the value chain. With exploratory interest expanding toward Africa—including recent visits to Mauritania and Niger—Morocco has the opportunity to extend its upstream vision beyond its borders.
By accelerating regulatory reform, finalizing strategic infrastructure, and leveraging public-private synergies, Morocco can transform natural gas from a transitional fuel into a long-term pillar of energy security, industrial transformation, and geopolitical integration. With the right strategy, Morocco is well placed to become a regional hub for sustainable, flexible, and resilient energy flows—anchoring both national development and Africa-Europe energy cooperation.

By Yassine Belkabir, Managing Director of the African Bureau of Mining Consultants

Phone : +212 (0) 520 312 808 

Mail : Contact@abminingconsultants.com

Site internet : www.abminingconsultants.com

Bibliography / References

1. Chariot Ltd. (2024) – Anchois Drilling Update. Offshore Magazine. https://www.offshore-mag.com
2. Energean (2024) – Suspension of Anchois Project. Energy News Pro. https://energynews.pro
3. IEA World Energy Outlook 2023 – Global Energy Prices and Gas Scenarios. International Energy Agency. https://www.iea.org
4. IRENA (2023) – Renewable Energy Cost Statistics. IRENA Publications. https://www.irena.org
5. ONHYM Reports (2022–2023) – Exploration Licenses and Basin Profiles. ONHYM. https://www.onhym.com
6. World Bank (2021) – Morocco’s Energy Policy Review.
7. Lazard (2023) – Levelized Cost of Energy (v16.0). Lazard.com. https://www.lazard.com
8. Morocco’s Ministry of Energy Transition – National Hydrogen Roadmap & Draft Gas Code (unofficial sources).