This publication explores how Africa can lead a new era of food security through strategic investment, regional collaboration, and sovereignty over critical inputs. Anchored by OCP’s integrated model and aligned with Agenda 2030, it outlines global scenarios, regional vulnerabilities, and the tools needed to build resilient, climate-smart agricultural systems by 2050.

Introduction

Food security is emerging as one of the defining challenges of the 21st century. It lies at the intersection of environmental degradation, demographic pressure, technological advancement, and geopolitical tension. Beyond its humanitarian implications, food security also determines the stability of trade, the resilience of rural economies, and the sovereignty of nations.
In this context, we propose a strategic analysis of global food systems, focusing on future scenarios, regional dynamics, and structural levers of transformation. Particular attention is given to Morocco’s OCP Group, a phosphate and fertilizer leader whose evolving model offers important insights into how industrial actors can contribute to food sovereignty.

1. The Global Food Security Challenge

Over 281 million people faced acute food insecurity in 2023, according to the Global Report on Food Crises (2024). While many crises are linked to conflict, others are increasingly triggered by climate instability or economic shocks.

• Yemen: One of the world’s worst food crises. By late 2023, over 3.9 million people were in IPC Phase 3+ (Crisis or Emergency), a 20% increase from early 2023. With over 90% of staple foods imported, Yemen’s population remains critically vulnerable to supply disruptions caused by blockades, price volatility, and conflict.
• Sudan: Conflict and displacement have worsened hunger across the country. In 2024, 21.3 million people were food insecure, with over 150,000 in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe). Agricultural activity in major zones like Gezira has been halted.
• Horn of Africa (2020–2022): The region suffered its worst drought in 40 years, affecting Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia. Over 20 million people faced severe hunger, not because of war, but due to prolonged rainfall failure, livestock collapse, and loss of livelihoods.

2. The Five Pillars of Food Security

Food security is a chain of interconnected systems. Intervening at any step can boost resilience:

1. Seed and Grain Quality: HYVs revolutionized yields during the Green Revolution. But climate-resilient, locally adapted seeds remain limited in many regions.
2. Fertilizer Access and Soil Health: Fertilizers account for up to 50% of crop yield gains globally.
3. Agricultural Productivity: Mechanization, irrigation, and extension services raise productivity. Global cereal yield averages ~4.5 tons/ha.
4. Post-Harvest and Distribution: Losses are still 20–30% globally, higher in fragile regions.
5. Nutrition and Food Safety: Malnutrition persists due to poor diets and increasing ultra-processed food consumption.

3. Scenarios for 2030 and 2050 – Framing and Assumptions

These scenarios are constructed based on:

• FAO projections and SDG targets
• Climate risk models and IPCC pathways
• Historical supply chain disruption patterns
• Current investment and policy trajectories

Table 1. Global Food Security Scenarios: 2030 & 2050.

4. Regional Dynamics and Strategic Priorities

A concise regional breakdown across five food chain components:

Table 2. Summary Table of the Strategic Priorities per region.

5. OCP’s Agenda 2030 Alignment

Morocco’s OCP Group, having one of the largest known phosphate reserves, is positioning itself as a strategic driver of sustainable food systems and a key contributor to Agenda 2030. Aligned with multiple Sustainable Development Goals—notably SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production), SDG 13 (Climate Action), and SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals)—OCP is advancing a long-term vision that connects resource stewardship with inclusive growth.

Its $13 billion capital investment plan (2023–2027) supports the transition to green ammonia, renewable energy integration, and a tripling of fertilizer production capacity (from 12 to 20 million tonnes/year), promoting decarbonization in agri-inputs (SDG 13). Through a network of regional blending plants in countries such as Nigeria and Ghana and direct support to over 2 million African farmers via OCP Africa, the Group contributes to improving nutrient accessibility, food productivity, and local value chains (SDG 2, SDG 9).

In parallel, UM6P’s research ecosystem—supported by OCP—leads innovation in soil mapping, precision fertilization, and agronomic intelligence (SDG 4 and SDG 12), ensuring that sustainable practices are grounded in evidence and tailored to regional needs.

Together, these initiatives demonstrate OCP’s commitment to building resilient, inclusive, and climate-smart food systems, in line with the UN’s 2030 vision for sustainable development.

6. Reclaiming Partnership: Avoiding Dependence Through South–South Leadership

As Morocco and OCP deepen their engagement across Africa and the Global South, it is critical to avoid falling into the patterns of dependency often associated with traditional East–West geopolitical alignments. Whether framed as development assistance or strategic investment, these models have too often perpetuated asymmetries of power, extracting value rather than building it locally. In contrast, OCP’s approach to partnership—grounded in co-investment, local empowerment, and shared governance—offers an alternative rooted in South–South cooperation. But this model must be defended and deliberately constructed. The temptation to rely on external financing or technology, whether from the West or emerging powers in the East, risks undermining the sovereignty and long-term sustainability of African agricultural systems. A truly transformative food security strategy must prioritize African-led solutions, equitable partnerships, and endogenous value creation. OCP’s challenge going forward is not only to scale innovation, but to do so without reproducing the structures of dominance it seeks to replace.

In Ghana, for instance, OCP co-invests with public actors in blending facilities that incorporate local input and data, rather than simply exporting fertilizers.

Conclusion – A Regional Path to Global Food Resilience

Feeding 10 billion people by 2050 requires transforming fragmented supply chains into resilient regional ecosystems. Morocco and OCP offer a blueprint where industrial actors drive long-term, inclusive, and climate-smart solutions for food systems. Policy reform, farmer support, and local innovation must converge to deliver sustainable nourishment to all.

The road to 2050 demands bold choices—where food is not only secured, but sovereign. Through integrated, climate-resilient, and regionally led systems, Morocco and its partners have the chance to shape a new agricultural order built on dignity, science, and shared prosperity.

By Yassine Belkabir, Managing Director of the African Bureau of Mining Consultants

Phone : +212 (0) 520 312 808 

Mail : Contact@abminingconsultants.com

Site internet : www.abminingconsultants.com

References

• FAO (2023) – State of Food Security and Nutrition
• WFP (2024) – Global Hunger Report
• IFDC (2022) – Fertilizer Access and Soil Recovery Report
• OCP Group (2023) – Annual Report and Q3 Results
• World Bank (2022) – Food Systems and Climate Resilience
• UM6P (2023) – Research Notes and Field Trials

Appendix: Glossary of Acronyms and Key Terms